By Jamie Martin
The USDA is poised to release its November Crop Production Report this Friday, with analysts predicting minor changes to U.S. corn and soybean projections but more significant adjustments to global wheat production forecasts.
The report is a critical indicator for agricultural markets, providing updated data on crop yields and stock levels that influence commodity prices and farming decisions.
For corn, early trade estimates suggest a production decrease of 15 to 25 million bushels, aligning closely with expectations for reduced U.S. ending stocks, which are anticipated to drop by 50 million bushels.
However, opinions among analysts vary widely, with some predicting as much as a 175 million bushel decrease and others forecasting a 70-million-bushel increase.
Soybean production estimates are expected to remain unchanged from October’s figures at 4.557 billion bushels. Yet, analysts forecast a slight decline in soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year, potentially decreasing by 18 million bushels to 532 million, with estimates ranging between 475 million and 585 million bushels.
Internationally, the focus will likely be on wheat, with private forecasts suggesting a decline in production across several countries. The USDA is expected to report a decrease in global wheat ending stocks by 0.93 million metric tons (mmt), settling at 256.79 mmt.
The report comes at a time when the U.S. corn and soybean harvests are nearly complete, with over 94% of soybeans and 91% of corn already harvested, despite recent wet weather across the Midwest which delayed activities slightly but benefited the winter wheat crop and pastures.
In other economic news, the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and ongoing discussions in China’s legislature about economic stimulus measures could further influence the agricultural sector, highlighting the interconnected nature of global agriculture and economic policies.
Photo Credit:gettyimages-eugenesergeev
Categories: National