Corn Yield Forecasts Aid 2025 Decisions

By Scout Nelson

The Yield Forecasting Center (YFC) at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln is releasing updated corn yield forecasts every three weeks during the 2025 season. These forecasts are based on crop stage, weather conditions, and soil data for 43 key Corn Belt locations, supporting better decision-making for the ag industry.

YFC combines expert input from local agronomists, measured weather data, and a well-tested crop simulation tool called Hybrid-Maize. This model uses current weather data and 20+ years of historical records to simulate potential yield under optimal management conditions.

Forecasts include both rainfed and irrigated corn yields when both types are grown in a region. Management practices differ by water source, so separate simulations help increase accuracy. Yield results reflect the average performance for each location based on the area's dominant soil types and weighted prevalence.

Hybrid-Maize simulates growth up to the present using real data, then projects future scenarios using past weather trends. This provides a range of possible yields and helps determine the probability of achieving below, near, or above-normal yields.

“Yield forecasts more closely track yields achieved in fields that did not suffer severe yield losses due to pests, hail, water logging, poor establishment or substantially affected by a stress not accounted for in the Hybrid-Maize model.”

Early forecasts show a wider range of potential yields, but this range narrows as the season progresses and more current data is used. By August and September, yield predictions become more reliable.

These forecasts can assist in adjusting yield goals, planning irrigation or fertilizer use, and even marketing crops. They are especially useful for producers, transporters, the ethanol industry, and policymakers.

Four Crop Watch articles will provide yield updates starting in late July, including data on potential frost, current phenology, and comparisons to long-term yield averages across regions.

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