By Jamie Martin
Cattle markets worldwide saw price increases in early 2025, driven by tightening supplies and trade uncertainty, according to a new report from Rabobank’s RaboResearch team.
Since early 2025, global beef production has contracted while trade tensions grow, especially involving the United States.
Beef remains a key export product for the US. Policy changes, including new tariffs introduced in April, have affected global trade flows. So far, most exporters only face baseline tariffs, but Rabobank warns that conflicts involving Europe and China could disrupt this balance.
“Beef isn’t being singled out as a targeted commodity, and most major exporters are only facing baseline tariffs,” explains Gidley-Baird. “So early indications suggest that competitive positions will be maintained, albeit with added costs to the system.”
Production declines are projected across the U.S., China, Europe, Brazil (down 5%), and New Zealand (down 4%). In contrast, Australia may see slight production increases.
Health threats are also contributing to price pressures. European cattle herds are battling bluetongue disease, while the U.S. has stopped importing Mexican cattle due to New World screwworm risks.
Cattle prices in Europe surged in Q1 as domestic supplies dropped. North American prices also continue to rise gradually.
Additional tariffs and reciprocal trade measures are on hold until mid-2025, with US-China negotiations paused until August. Chinese buyers are increasingly sourcing beef from Australia, New Zealand, and South America as U.S. beef becomes more expensive.
“While tariffs may have grabbed headlines and caused headaches, the real story will be the implications of shifting global trade dynamics,” warns Gidley-Baird.
Despite short-term stability, long-term risks remain high if trade disputes escalate or supply shortages deepen.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-pamwalker68
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