By Jamie Martin
The USDA’s second Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 2025 reflects a bearish tone, showing continued growth in hog inventory.
As of June 1, the U.S. hog and pig inventory stood at 75.1 million—up 1% from March and the highest June figure since 2020. Despite this growth, pigs kept for breeding dropped to 5.98 million, the lowest in ten years.
Farmers achieved a record of 11.7 pigs saved per litter in the second quarter, highlighting efficiency. However, increased production may weigh on prices.
USDA’s June Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook reported May hog slaughter at 10.4 million, with pork production exceeding 2.2 billion pounds—both up over 3% from last year. Packers are likely responding to higher pork demand ahead of the grilling season.
Domestically, pork consumption has remained relatively flat for over five decades. However, record beef prices might shift consumer interest to pork.
Export performance remains key. In 2024, exports contributed $66.53 per hog. Top destinations include Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia, and China.
The 2025 export forecast is down 2.3%, with trade uncertainty and global competition from countries like Brazil affecting projections.
Hog prices in mid-June reached $106.96 per cwt, up 21% from the same time last year. Warm summer temperatures may slow hog weight gain, reducing supply and helping prices rise.
As StoneX’s Josh Linville noted, “We have seen Iranian production shut off… very quickly because of these strikes,” reflecting broader supply chain concerns.
While hog farmers still feel the effects of 2023’s financial losses, steady summer demand and possible export gains could improve profitability in the coming months.
Photo Credit: istock-srdjan-stepic
Categories: National