A year ago, many were taken aback when Gro Intelligence, a data-driven agency, estimated the national corn yield to be much lower than expected, while most other predictions hovered higher. This same agency was pretty close in their estimation, considering the eventual adjustment made by the USDA.
Fast forward to the present, and Gro Intelligence is back in the spotlight. After a roller-coaster year for crops, characterized by early planting followed by droughts and finally substantial rain, their projections are eagerly awaited. The challenges weren't limited to just one region but spread across the Corn Belt, leaving many to wonder about the ultimate yield.
One state that faced significant hardship was Nebraska. Early in the season, young crops wilted in the heat, and deep cracks could be seen in the parched soil. Despite this rough start, the recent data suggests a potential yield of 189.5 bushels per acre (bpa) for Nebraska. This is astonishing, given the tough conditions farmers battled early in the season. Similarly, a high yield prediction of 197.3 bpa has been set for Illinois, another state that had a rocky start.
But what's the reasoning behind such optimistic figures? Data indicates that while conditions were indeed adverse in June, there's been an impressive rebound since. In just six weeks, yield estimates have surged over 40% for Illinois and over 20% for Nebraska. While it's natural to be skeptical, considering the early adversities, the data seems to support the optimistic outlook.
Consequently, there's growing anticipation that this year's corn crop might exceed 15.0 billion bushels, potentially even surpassing the 2016 record. The implications of such a bountiful yield are vast, especially with global competition and economic conditions in play.
While the final verdict will only be clear with time, for now, the data-driven approach to estimating yields provides a fresh perspective. And as the months roll on, it will be riveting to observe if these early predictions hold water.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-steve-greer
Categories: Nebraska, Crops, Corn